Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin appears to be making her presence felt in the race between former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes and incumbent Congressman Sam Graves.
The latest KCTV5/SurveyUSA poll in the 6th congressional district contest shows that Graves now holds a nine point lead over Barnes. That’s a five point improvement for Graves since the last KCTV5/SurveyUSA poll seven weeks ago.
Ok, so what’s the evidence that Palin is a factor in Graves’s improved standing?
The poll, conducted on September 17 and 18, shows Graves now leading among women voters by 3 points. That’s hardly a big lead. But consider this: In the poll seven weeks ago, Barnes led among women by a whopping 17 points.
That’s a huge swing. It’s hard to attribute it to anything other than Palin.
She’s having that kind of impact elsewhere. Polls in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan all show that Palin is helping McCain among women voters.
Other polls have shown an improved standing for Republican candidates generally in the wake of Palin’s nomination for vice president. That may help explain Graves’s improved numbers among women voters.
The important question at this point is whether the Palin Effect will be temporary. She appears to be energizing the Republican base. That’s probably a permanent development.
On the other hand, her appeal to independent women voters may not last. She has a debate with Joe Biden on October 2. If she performs poorly, her support among those voters will likely drop off.
Barnes is responding to the Palin challenge. She’s hitting Graves on bread-and-butter issues that are appealing to women.
This much is clear: Barnes won’t unseat Graves if he wins a majority of women voters on Election Day. Guaranteed.
Monday, September 22, 8 p.m.
