A KCTV5/SurveyUSA poll released today shows that proponents of the 3/8 cent sales tax for light rail in Kansas City have a fighting chance to win.
That’s the good news for light rail supporters. The bad news is that the poll suggests that the vote will be very close. Let’s take a look.
The poll shows that 39% of likely voters in Kansas City say that they’re certain to vote for the ballot issue. That’s a pretty good core group on which the light rail campaign can build.
The opponents, on the other hand, have a core group of 29% of likely voters who say that they are certain to vote against the proposal.
When SurveyUSA asked the undecided voters to state whether they leaned one way or the other, the totals shifted to 46% in favor of the light rail proposal and 35% opposed. Nineteen percent of likely voters remained undecided.
So the light rail proponents are on their way to victory, right? They only need five more points, right?
Well, it’s not that simple. Here are a couple of important rules to remember about ballot issues.
Rule 1: There’s reason to worry if your ballot proposition polls at less than fifty percent. That’s because it’s generally more difficult for ballot issue supporters to pick up a large number of undecided voters.
I emphasize here that the poll shows that light rail supporters do only need five more points to win. I’d rather be in the position of the supporters, for sure. But that brings me to . . .
Rule 2: Undecided voters on ballot issues usually break more heavily for the “No” side on Election Day. It’s unlikely that the light rail camps are going to split the undecided voters evenly. The “No” camp will pick up more voters in that category.
So, let say that the undecided voters on light rail split 4 % “Yes” and 15% “No.” You’ve got a tie vote.
Light rail supporters have a strong base. But historic voting patterns on ballot propositions tell us that the opponents can pull out a victory.
Undecided voters are up for grabs. “Leaners” could be swayed the other way. This one will be determined in the closing days of the campaign.
Tuesday, October 21, 3:40 p.m.
