Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon is poised to defeat Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof in the race for Missouri Governor. The latest KCTV5/SurveyUSA poll shows Nixon with a commanding 55% to 38% lead over Hulshof.
Nixon’s wanted the governorship for a long time. In fact, he’s wanted to be something big in Show Me State politics since he was a young stripling of a politician.
Nixon took on incumbent United States Senator Jack Danforth in 1988, just two years after winning a state senate seat. “Saint Jack” drubbed him.
Nixon ran for attorney general in 1992 and defeated David Steelman in a political bloodbath of a campaign.
But that victory didn’t stop Nixon from dreaming of bigger things. In 1998, he ran against United States Senator Kit Bond. He lost.
You get the picture. Nixon has been willing to take big risks in his political career. And he hasn’t let the little problem of suffering a defeat or two along the way deter him from pursuing the biggest prizes in politics.
It looks like Nixon’s perseverance may pay off in 2008.
Hulshof’s been unable to make much headway. Nixon’s 55%-38% lead in the latest poll isn’t very different from the 57%-33% lead he had in our May poll. Why hasn’t Hulshof made more progress?
Well, first there’s the Matt Blunt factor. Blunt grabbed more than $10 million in donations for his expected reelection bid before he withdrew from the governor’s race in January.
His stunning withdrawal demoralized his supporters. It also left Hulshof at a tremendous money disadvantage. Once Blunt withdrew, Nixon’s fundraising soared. Hulshof’s fundraising has been ok, but hasn’t come anywhere near matching the pace of Nixon’s contributions.
The simple fact of the matter is that Blunt sucked the political oxygen out of the Missouri GOP.
Then there’s the Sarah Steelman factor. Hulshof defeated the state treasurer in a hotly contested Republican primary.
The patching-up process after a tough primary is never easy. It certainly wasn’t easy after this one. Steelman says that she has endorsed Hulshof on two separate occasions. For whatever reason, though, the combatants in this fight weren’t able to generate the kind of party-unity-photo-ops that political operatives like to see.
I don’t want to overstate the impact of the primary aftermath. Let’s face it, President Bush is carrying a heavy job disapproval rating in Missouri. And that has produced some mighty heavy baggage for Hulshof.
But let’s give credit where credit’s due. Nixon’s waged a smart campaign. He’s raised a ton of money. He’s shored up his political base among African-American voters. He’s made all the right moves.
And most importantly, he’s never let the dream of winning the big one die. Missouri voters may make his dream come true on November 4.
Tuesday, October 27, 9 p.m.
Updated, Friday, October 31, 10 a.m.
