Republican Nick Jordan is mounting a serious challenge to Kansas Third District Congressman Dennis Moore. The KCTV5/SurveyUSA poll conducted on October 25 and 26 shows Moore holding a 53% to 42% lead over Jordan.
Here’s Jordan’s big problem: The poll shows Moore defeating Jordan among independent voters by a margin of 58% to 28%.
Folks who don’t know better say that Moore wins because of the votes of moderate Republicans. That’s just wrong. Moore wins because of his grip on the huge number of unaffiliated voters in Johnson County. Jordan has to win a larger share of those voters in the closing days of the campaign or he’ll be toast.
The poll numbers are otherwise pretty good for the challenger. He’s clearly bringing a lot of Republicans home after the debacles of 2004 and 2006. That’s crucial.
So Jordan is making a race of it. That’s not a surprise. Jordan is the strongest opponent Moore has faced.
Jordan has rightfully touted his work on the legislation that created the Kansas Bioscience Authority as an example of his ability to legislate in an imaginative way.
He otherwise has a mostly conservative record in the state legislature. In the waning days of the campaign, Moore’s been hammering Jordan on aspects of that record, particularly in the area of education. That will make Jordan’s effort to win over independent voters more difficult.
Jordan has generated impressive national support for his campaign. President Bush came to town to raise funds for him. So did House Minority Leader John Boehner. And Oklahoma Congressman Tom Cole, the chairman of the House Republican campaign effort, has come to the area twice to campaign for the challenger.
So why is Jordan trailing by 11 points?
Well, first of all, Moore has been on Johnson County ballots since what seems like Old Testament times. He defeated Republican incumbent Margaret Jordan for Johnson County District Attorney in 1976.
Moore’s been on a countywide ballot for three district attorney races, an unsuccessful attorney general race, two community college board of trustee races, and five congressional races. That generates a lot of name recognition.
Moore invariably has good staff and his constituent services generate praise.
His voting record places him in the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. He’s incurred the wrath of organized labor by supporting free trade legislation. He’s supporting organized labor, though, on the controversial proposal to do away with secret ballot elections on the question of union organizing.
Here’s the bottom line: Dennis Moore is one tough incumbent to beat. He’s a Democrat who’s prospered in Republican Johnson County. That’s because independent voters support him in huge numbers.
If Nick Jordan doesn’t start rallying more of those voters soon, Moore will be cranking up another victory celebration sing-along on Election Night.
Tuesday, October 28, 6:30 p.m.
