Look for Obama to Refocus on McCain, Ignore Palin

Sarah Palin performed pretty well in her interview with ABC News anchor Charles Gibson, shown tonight on 20/20.

The Obama campaign folks will see that. Look for them to refocus their attacks on McCain and ignore Palin. The Obama mantra for the next two weeks is likely to be “Bush-McCain, Bush-McCain, Bush-McCain.”

There’s no question that the Obama campaign lost its balance in the wake of Palin’s stirring acceptance speech in St. Paul. In the days leading up to the speech, Democrats smelled blood in the water. They attacked her readiness to be a heartbeat from the presidency.

They also inadvertently helped build her television audience.

When Palin dazzled folks with her speech, the Obama folks were flummoxed. Obama himself attacked her.

That will change after the Gibson interview.

It’s not that Palin was great. She was a little shaky in the foreign policy segments of the interview aired Thursday night. She did a much better job in the segments aired for the first time tonight.

The bottom line, though, is that she was pretty self-assured. That’s what many people will remember.

Here are my thoughts on the interview tonight:

1. Her opening remarks outside her home were particularly winning. Very smart move for her to praise Hillary Clinton and say that she bets Obama regrets not picking her.

2. She did a pretty good job parrying Gibson’s questions on taxes and the economy.

3. Quick on her feet: she says that Obama has had 94 chances to vote to cut taxes and hasn’t done it. I don’t know if it’s correct. It’s a pretty good campaign line, though.

4. The McCain camp should drop the Bridge to Nowhere issue. It appears to me to be a nowheresville campaign issue.

5. Palin did a pretty good job dealing with what Gibson called “hot button” social issues. She said that her personal opinions might be different than the policy of the administration in which she serves. Interesting.

There’s a reason that ABC aired the Palin interview in primetime on 20/20. She’s boffo for ratings.
“Sarah Palin: An American Woman,” a pretty mediocre Fox News special, set a ratings record for a cable news network documentary.

That’s why I think that the Obama campaign will abandon its attempt to sink the McCain campaign by attacking her. Attacks on Palin just keep her in the limelight.

Obama will figure it out. If he’s going to be successful, he has to return to his central campaign message of tying McCain to George W. Bush.

You’re going to hear “Bush-McCain” a lot in the next couple of weeks. Attacking Palin appears to be a bridge to nowhere.

Friday, 9:50 p.m.

Palin’s Convention Speech Was Historic

St. Paul – Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention last night was historic.

It wasn’t historic because she was the Republican Party’s first nominee for Vice President, although that fact is certainly worthy of note.

It was historic because it was the first time in American political history that a female politician gave an address that electrified a party’s national convention.

That’s no knock on the many fine women politicians who’ve made speeches at national conventions. Hillary Clinton made a fine speech in Denver. Ann Richards’ keynote address at the 1992 Democratic National Convention was outstanding.

But good as those speeches were, you wouldn’t say that they electrified the conventions at which they were delivered.

Palin’s speech did.

Let me give you some context on how good I thought her speech was by first describing a few of the great political speeches I have seen in person.

I saw young Ted Kennedy delivering a stemwinder in behalf of George McGovern in 1972.

I watched Hubert Humphrey give a great speech on the plight of the farmer on the floor of the Senate in 1975.

I saw Ronald Reagan addressing the Republican National Convention for the last time in Houston in 1992.

I heard Richard Nixon praise Bob Dole in a very touching way at an event in Wichita in 1993.

I saw Barack Obama move a largely white audience in Iowa in 2007.

Now, I will add Sarah Palin’s convention speech to the list.

Under unimaginable pressure, she was simply spectacular. She was alternately funny, slashing, moving, and funny.

And let me tell you folks who want to dismiss the speech as just being the work of some speech writer: You don’t deliver a speech like that in an intimidating environment, under intense pressure, and in such a commanding way, unless you’re loaded with political skills.

It’s too early to say how all this will ultimately play out. Barack Obama is also loaded with political skills. His campaign organization has been outstanding.

I have to believe, though, that Palin improves the odds of a McCain victory, as improbable as that may seem.

She energizes social conservatives in the Republican base. She is likely to play well with many independent voters, including women who might have been inclined to vote for Hillary Clinton or for an Obama-Clinton ticket.

You have to give John McCain credit on the decision to put Palin on the ticket. He could have made a safe choice. He decided instead to take a risk on someone who might be a game-changer in a tough year for Republicans.

It’s becoming apparent that the old warrior is willing to risk everything to try to win in November.

Thursday, September 4, Noon.

Palin Wows Kansas Delegates

L-R - Barbara Lawrence, Karin Brownlee, and Alicia Salisbury

[caption id="attachment_173" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Kansas Republican Party chair Kris Kobach and Leawood mayor Peggy Dunn"][/caption]
St. Paul – I will have a lot to say in a subsequent posting about Sarah Palin’s remarkable speech to the Republican National Convention last night. For now, though, l thought you might be interested to know how Kansas delegates responded.

In a word, they were awed by Palin’s performance. State senator Karin Brownlee, Olathe, said, “She hit the longest home run ever.” She thought the combination of Rudy Giuliani’s laugh-filled attack on Obama and Palin’s powerful address would make a big impression on voters.

Republican National Committeewoman Alicia Salisbury said, “She’s terrific, strong on character and a very strong speaker.”

Leawood mayor Peggy Dunn was struck by Palin’s comments on her family. She said, “I think it’s extremely important that she’s going to highlight families with special needs children in this campaign.”

Former state senator Barbara Lawrence thought Palin “was excellent. She’s really ready, so poised and so sure of herself. She’s right down the line on what people are looking for.”

Palin energized these delegates. She energized this convention. I’ll have more on that later.

Thursday, September 4, 10:20 a.m.

Brownback Is a Big Deal at the Republican Convention

St. Paul – Kansas United States Senator Sam Brownback is a big deal in the McCain campaign. That means he’s going to be a big deal at this convention.

In fact, Brownback has been awarded a coveted Thursday evening speaking slot. Many times the grandest of campaign grand poohbahs speak on Thursday just before the presidential nominee.

You remember who spoke before Barack Obama last week: none other than Mr. Nobel Peace Prize winner, former Vice President Al Gore.

Brownback doesn’t have the standing in the Republican Party that Gore has in the Democratic Party. His Thursday night gig should nonetheless be viewed as an expression of gratitude from John McCain.

What did Brownback do? Well, when his own presidential campaign fizzled, he almost immediately joined the McCain campaign. McCain’s nomination was no sure thing at the time.

Brownback organized outreach efforts to Catholic and evangelical voters. He more recently has worked with Theodore Olsen, one of the nation’s most prominent conservative lawyers, on legal and judicial issues for the McCain camp.

Olsen won’t be getting a major appointment in the McCain administration. Senate Democrats wouldn’t confirm him for the position of dogcatcher. Why? He was George W. Bush’s chief litigator in the case of Bush v. Gore in 2000. ‘Nuf said.

Olsen’s radioactivity among Democrats has prompted some observers to wonder if Brownback is a potential Attorney General in a McCain administration. That seems unlikely because Governor Kathleen Sebelius, a Democrat, would appoint his replacement.

It’s clear, though, that Brownback, who is a member of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, would have a major role in a McCain administration on judicial appointments and legal issues.

Brownback’s presidential campaign was largely a forgettable affair. He focused almost exclusively on social and cultural issues in a bid to win voters who ultimately preferred the laugh-a-minute style of Mike Huckabee.

In the closing weeks of his campaign, however, Brownback began to speak about other policy issues.

He’s been a leader on issues such as the genocide in Darfur. He’s also been one of the few Republican senators who’s shown a willingness to take on tough issues involving race relations.

Brownback has been, in short, a senator of considerable accomplishment. He just didn’t talk about those accomplishments in his own presidential campaign.

Now the McCain campaign has afforded him an opportunity to take center stage at the Republican National Convention.

I expect that Brownback tomorrow evening will praise McCain as a guy who can reach across the aisle to get things done, who’s not afraid to go against the grain if he thinks it’s the right thing to do, and who can be counted on to appoint judges who will strictly interpret the Constitution.

Brownback threw in with McCain when McCain needed help. Now McCain will give Brownback a moment of political redemption.

Wednesday, August 3, 1:30 p.m.

Joe Lieberman May Be McCain’s Most Important Messenger

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman told delegates to the Republican National Convention this evening that he’s for John McCain because country matters more than party.

That’s a strong message. It’s a really strong message when it’s being delivered by a Democrat at a Republican gathering.

Lieberman’s speech wasn’t the keynote address of the convention. It may as well have been. He made the case that McCain would be a more powerful agent of change than Barack Obama.

He told the delegates that Obama’s eloquence is no substitute for a record.

That will set Democrats’ teeth on edge.

They’ll also be enraged that Lieberman offered a staunch defense of Sarah Palin. He said she would reach across party lines, just as McCain had done. He said she would help McCain shake up Washington.

Lieberman praised McCain’s stalwart advocacy of the surge in Iraq. Polls consistently show that voters believe that McCain would do a better job than Obama in handling national security issues.

Lieberman said, in an appeal to Democrats and independents, that “this is no ordinary election” and he urged them to vote for McCain, the person who “had always put America first.”

This was a remarkable speech, given by the Democratic Party’s nominee for Vice President in 2000.

Lieberman burnt his bridges to Democrats in the Senate. I don’t think he cared. He delivered for John McCain, his close friend, in a big way.

Lieberman got McCain and the Republicans off to a pretty good start this evening.

Tuesday, 10:15 p.m.

Sarah Palin’s a Great Choice for McCain

I say John McCain made a great move when he selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to serve as his running mate.

You’re thinking, “How can he say that at this early stage of the game?” Here’s my analysis.

When Barack Obama selected Joe Biden as his running mate, he made a safe move. He needed someone with foreign policy experience. Biden had served as chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. It was a good pick.

McCain, the guy who flew jets off aircraft carriers and into harm’s way, took a risk. He chose Palin’s energy and potential appeal to independent women voters and working class voters over safety.

It was the right choice. McCain’s behind in a very tough year for Republicans. He has to be bold if he wants to win.

McCain needed to energize Republicans. All the energy has been on the Democratic side. The selection of Palin electrified activist Republicans.

It also instantly made the Republican National Convention in St. Paul a must-watch affair.

Sure, McCain could have picked Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty. They would have been pretty good picks. But let’s face it, those selections would have produced yawns.

No one’s yawning about Palin. Her address to the convention will be historic and it will be riveting television.

In addition, polls consistently show that independent women voters are more up for grabs than anyone would have anticipated. Forget about everyone saying he’s trying to win Hillary Clinton’s voters. McCain’s targeting independent women voters with the selection of Palin.

And remember that he doesn’t need to win all of them. If this race is close, winning a higher percentage than anticipated could be crucial.

That’s true also for blue collar voters. Palin’s husband is a union member. Is it possible that she might help McCain pick up two, three, or four percent more of these voters in states such as Michigan or Pennsylvania? That could swing the presidency to McCain.

Here’s another point on which I’ll be blogging in the next couple of days: Sarah Palin is a great campaigner. When the Republican Party’s first female nominee for Vice President proves to be an asset on the campaign trail, that’s going to be big, big news.

So there’s my fearless analysis on the Sarah Palin pick. Much more on this in the next couple of days.

Tuesday, 1 p.m.

Pat Roberts Appears to Have Put Jim Slattery Campaign in Free Fall

The latest KCTV5/SurveyUSA poll shows Kansas United States Senator Pat Roberts with a colossal 27 point lead over Democratic challenger Jim Slattery.

According to the poll, Roberts leads Slattery 58% to 31%. Those numbers suggest that the campaign mounted by Roberts in the last two months has been stunningly effective.

You’d have to say, in fact, that the Slattery campaign appears to be in free fall. One poll several months ago had Slattery creeping to within nine points of Roberts.

Then Roberts cranked it up, airing a series of television spots and commencing a 105 county tour.

Now, as the campaigns head into the Labor Day weekend, Roberts sports a nifty lead over the challenger.

As I’ve said before, former Congressman Slattery is a formidable candidate. It’s way too early to count him out.

However, there are some very troubling numbers for Slattery in this poll.

Let’s start with crossover voting. That’s been the bane of Republican candidates for a decade, with Republicans crossing over to vote for Democrats such as Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Congressman Dennis Moore.

Well, these numbers show a significant crossover voting problem for Slattery, not for Roberts. The poll numbers show that one in four Democrats would cross over to vote for Roberts. Only one in eight Republicans would cross over to vote for Slattery.

That means that the Sebelius Republicans are staying home with Roberts. It also suggests that there may be more than a few Roberts Democrats out there.

The poll shows Roberts leading by 32 points among men. No surprise there. However, the poll also shows him leading among women by 23 points. That’s a catastrophe for a Democratic challenger.

This one isn’t over. But Slattery has to do something – fast – to get his campaign going again.

The poll suggests that will be hard to do. At the Labor Day turn to November, Roberts is sitting pretty.

Sunday, August 31, noon

This Historic Day

Al Brooks

Denver – On the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King, Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech, an African-American, Barack Obama, will accept the nomination of the Democratic Party for President of the United States.

For everyone, regardless of their politics, regardless of the presidential candidate they favor, there is reason to celebrate this day. Obama’s nomination is a signal event in American political history.

It’s a result that would have been too astonishing to contemplate just five years ago. But then Obama delivered his “Audacity of Hope” speech to the 2004 Democratic Convention in Boston.

It electrified many Democrats. It also set the stage for Obama to take advantage of Hillary Clinton’s substantial unfavorable ratings, even among some Democratic voters.

Obama mounted an awesomely effective primary campaign. We don’t know if his general election campaign will be as successful.

This much is certain, however: Obama’s achievement is historic and important, regardless of the outcome of his race against John McCain.

That’s the way Missouri delegate Al Brooks sees it.

Brooks is 76 and he’s seen a lot in the struggle for civil rights in Kansas City.

In April, 1968, bloody riots broke out in Kansas City in the wake of the assassination of Dr. King. One month later, he was the first African-American appointed to head a city department.

He didn’t think then that he’d live to see a day like this one. He says, “Your faith and upbringing made you hope for this day. You just were never sure when it would come.”

Brooks grew up in the segregated Dunbar-Leeds area of Kansas City. He says, “You know, I attended segregated schools. Our teachers taught us about this day. They didn’t know when it would happen but they taught us about it. The taught us about Booker T. Washington and W.E.B. Dubois. They were teaching us about a movement to a better America.”

Brooks pauses and says, “This is a great moment. We don’t give ourselves credit for how far we’ve come.”

Brooks then thought about the circumstances in which he grew up. “I wish my mom and dad could see this.”

Brooks has a three-year old great-great granddaughter. He says, “I will see her when she visits this fall. I will tell her about this day. She won’t understand it all but she will remember that I talked to her about it.”

He says, “I will tell her that no matter how this turns out, this is a day to always remember.”

Amen, and amen.

Thursday, 10 a.m.

Bill Clinton Delivers Critical Message, Biden Stresses Middle Class Roots

Denver – There were times during the primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton when former President Bill Clinton was off his game.

No, that’s not strong enough. His performance during the campaign was at times downright erratic.

Well, tonight he made a brilliant speech in behalf of Barack Obama.

It was a classy performance. The former president doesn’t take defeat very well. Giving the speech he gave tonight had to be just as tough for him as it was for his wife last night.

But give it he did. He delivered a particularly powerful message for Obama. Bill Clinton took on directly what is likely to be the key issue of the campaign. He flatly argued that Obama is ready to be commander-in-chief.

That’s important because his wife questioned Obama’s readiness to lead and, trust me, next week the Republicans will savage Obama on the issue.

It was an unusually brief and relatively subdued performance for Bill Clinton but his message was critical to Obama’s hopes.

The Democratic nominee for Vice President, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, introduced himself to millions of Americans. He touched the bases that are going to be important in this campaign.

Biden is Catholic. He introduced his mother, Catherine Eugenia Finnegan Biden.

He talked about his middle class upbringing in Scranton and Wilmington.

He hit economic issues hard, mentioning high gas prices, the cost of health care, and the cost of sending kids to college.

This is classic bread and butter stuff that’s crucial to the success of any Democratic candidate for President. Biden’s task will be to drive the economic messages of the Obama campaign home to blue collar voters.

Biden gave himself a good start on that task this evening.

Wednesday, 10:30 p.m.

Obama Hopes Biden Will Connect with Working Class Voters

Kansas City Councilmember Jan Marcason and Woody Overton

Denver – We know that Barack Obama picked Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate because of Biden’s foreign policy experience.

But let’s not forget that Obama is also hoping that Biden can help him connect with working class voters. Clinton creamed Obama in the fight for the blue collar vote. That’s where Biden has a role to play.

Biden grew up in a family of modest means in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Labor and blue collar voters have been an important part of his political base for many years.

I spoke with longtime Missouri Democratic political operative Woody Overton about the choice. He thinks that Biden will help the ticket in the Show Me State.

Lyn Shaw, a Kansas Democratic delegate, agrees. Her husband, Dennis Langley, a former chair of the Kansas Democratic Party, is friends with Biden. Shaw and Langley hosted an area fundraising event for Biden at their Spirit of Avalon mansion.

Shaw’s excited about the Biden choice. She thinks Kansans will like him.

I wouldn’t put the Sunflower State’s electoral votes in the Obama column. He’s pretty far down in the polls to John McCain in Kansas right now.

Obama didn’t select him to help in Kansas, though. He needs his help with working class voters.

Biden will start to make the case tonight.

Wednesday, 5:30 p.m.